gs global cycle GLI momentum

On the data front, the next week should give us more clarity on the outlook for US growth, as we get the US Manufacturing ISM and US labor market data, including ADP Employment and Non-Farm Payrolls numbers for October. We continue to look for signs of a sustained recovery in Chinese domestic activity. We get the official China PMI and the final HSBC PMI early on Thursday morning which could be expected to pick up modestly given the strong Flash print. In October, our Advanced GLI momentum improved to 0.9%mom from September’s reading of -0.01%mom, making this the first time momentum has been positive and increasing since December 2011, a strong signal for improvement in the global cycle. Given that the Korean exports print out on Wednesday is expected to increase sharply over October, as revealed by the 20-day exports number, we will look at the Global PMI releases on Thursday to see whether GLI Momentum will remain in the ‘Expansion phase’ for our October Final GLI print with its broader set of components.