Friday, August 7, 2015

the tight ranges mean that you're playing for peanuts- and the only way to make proper dough doing that is by ramping up the size

The implications of the number for the dollar and rates would appear to be fairly linear, though with August illiquidity it would be unwise to rule anything out.   The same holds true for equities, where despite the braying of the buy-the-dip crowd, Spooz have gone nowhere in aggregate for a long time- indeed all year.   As the chart below illustrates, selling the rally has proven to be just as effective a mean-reversion trade as buying the dip (albeit all within a corset-tight 5% range over the last six months); it's curious (and perhaps telling), therefore, that the few notable bears/short-sellers in the comments section seem to come in for a lot of stick- despite being distinctly less smug than the dip-buyers.


Either way, in Spooz at least, the tight ranges mean that you're playing for peanuts- and the only way to make proper dough doing that is by ramping up the size.  History is replete with examples of that sort of strategy ending badly- the only question is whether it happens today, next month, or some time further in the (distant?) future.

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