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owl. talk about bang for
your buck. if you followed the cause of dan
niles on facebook you would
have made money on the way
down when it priced and
even more recently on the
way up. dan is now
labeling the company his
favorite considered for 2013, facebook is after shorting it at the highs at the $22 a
share. john, i went from a huge wear on
facebook to a huge bull.
thanks for having me on.
why facebook? we were very vocal about facebook when they went public
and they had only one engine
of growth and that was on
desktop pcs. they didn't have any tablets and
this is before they reported
the prior quart.
what was interesting is they
had a mobile
strategy. they just
sponsored news feeds and
you go to the september quarter. that got to 140 quarter in revenue and we be surprised and another initiative for growth for next
year that's pretty
interesting. that's the reason for the about
face. it's gone from one horse pulling
the train to now you've got
or pulling the wagon, i
should say, to multiple
revenue drivers for next
year. we all know that
the possibility part of
the business is really
what happened you, and others, even os the root show they were talking about monetizing mobility because a pc
is smaller and you're not
able to monetize mobility
the way you can on your
pc. you think they have
gotten that figured
out? i think they really
have and that's a little
problem for a lot of
vendors looking out over the next couple of years. if you look at facebook, their mobile users were i think about
604 million last quarter.
it was up over 60 year
over year, and so that's
far outpacing the revenue
growth of the company
which is about 32%. so
this is -- if you think about it this way. at $38 a share, there were no mobile revenues, and that's the
price it came public at.
next year i think they could
do 20 billion in mobile
revenues out of a total
revenue stream of 7
billion, and so that's a much different worry. in addition to that, think about that next year. they have facebook ad exchange.
if you're inside fake.
they can advertise within
the facebook
platform. they are
gifting and hints them
getting into search. a
lot of positive drivers next year just from the things we know about like mobile revenues
and ad-exchange gifting,
and next career there
could be other things
coming up. so you would
-- so you would recommend
buying facebook at these
levels. i guess i want to
know how high can it go,
and also, i don't want to
spend the whole interview
on facebook. give me your
other top picks for 2013. what do you like right here, dan? sure. in terms of other names that i
like, quite honestly what
makes me excited about
next year is a lot of
names that people have absolutely hated for two years and good reason, that's where
we're most bullish. the specter index is down about
7% over the last two years,
and the s&p is up
about 13. we think that's
basically started the
bott tomorrow outside of
the pc industry, let me
correct that. semiconductors are more broadly based. we think they are going to get
bert. a company that most people
haven't heard of. it's called on smuktor, but
they are one of the top
20 biggest semiconductor
companies in the world,
and they sell 42 billion units every year, and, you know, this is a business that's been
put down for six quarters in
a year. we think it's turning and a
good reflection of what's
going on there.
i think the teleconspace
as well, you saw spending
really going down in the
last year. this year
you've had several deals,
softbank for spread and deutsche telekom and you'll see a lot more spending next year
in the u.s. coming out of
those areas and a lot of
it directed at
wireless. cisco, which is
a name we haven't been
very bullish on for a
long period of time, stock down 2% over the last two years, i think you'll see a big turnaround next year so that's
where we're excited.
a great list that we're
looking at right now on
facebook. sis doe. great to talk with you. i know we want to get into
microsoft next and is on
your buy line.
dan, good to talk to you.
good to talk with you.
dan niles joining us on
the
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