NYSE McClellan Oscillator

News - Presidential Cycles, Sector Rotation and The VIX

Tom McClellan and Andrew Horowitz discuss the presidential cycle and how it may play out the remainder of the year. They also discuss the recent lack of volatility, the VIX Index as well as some of the economic indicators that we are looking forward to seeing in the week ahead.

Taking a Look at COT Data For The Euro

Rumors of the collapse of the European Union have been around almost since the Maastricht Treaty was finalized in 1993. They have become more persistent lately with Greece's debt reorganization and with other countries seemingly on the brink.
In such an environment, one might think that the euro currency would be in danger as well. But that is not the way that the "smart money" traders are betting.
This week's chart looks at the net position of "commercial" traders of euro currency... Read More

Market Breadth Data Notes

We use WSJ/Barron's data for our final breadth numbers. Calculations made on numbers from other sources will show a slightly different result.
We wait until late in the day in order to have access to the "final" numbers.
This reflects final readings for the indicators covered.
Values for indicators calculated using preliminary numbers released just after the close usually differ slightly from these numbers.
We usually recommend that readers keep their own data for themselves, but this is a useful way to check and see if your numbers agree with ours.

NYSE: 08/20/2012

	Issues		Volume(000s)
Advances	1339		1330057
Declines	1677		1326407
Difference	-338		3650
10% Trend	296	. 705	400095
5% Trend	248	. 471	263131
McC OSC	48	. 234	136963
PRIOR McC OSC	87	. 890	167356
SUMM Index	3050	. 603	1398641
PRIOR SUMM Index	3002	. 369	1261678
A-D for OSC UNCH	345		537 *
A-D for OSC=0	-620		-2202 *
*million shares

DJIA Close		13271.64
PRIOR Close		13275.20
DJIA CHG		-3.56
DOW Price OSC		129.71
PRIOR DOW Price OSC		126.64
Price OSC UNCH'D		13232.27

Daily Oscillator Data (.xls)

2012 Banff International Commodities Conference

Important Note

Starting 3/8/2012:
NYSE Up Volume & Down Volume data will report composite trading volume.

3/7/2012 and before:
Reports NYSE floor trading volume, as has been our long standing practice.
See: Changes in how We Track Volume Data

Extended Data

All of this data, plus a lot more, is available on our Daily Edition along with charts and analysis. See our Market Reports page to get the bigger picture.

McClellan Sees Stocks Rising Until February: Technical Analysis

By Lu Wang - Oct 20, 2011 4:00 AM PT

Investors should start buying stocks because indicators of momentum and breadth suggest the Standard& Poor’s 500 Index’s rally from an October low will last, said Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report.
The benchmark for U.S. equities formed an outside day reversal on Oct. 18, when its intraday high and low exceeded those of the previous day. That pattern, along with charts including the McClellan advance-decline summation index, showed the rally that lifted the S&P 500 as much as 15 percent from its 2011 intraday low will extend until February, McClellan said in a telephone interview yesterday.
“The way that the market had an outside day reversal showing strength was very impressive,” said McClellan, who started publishing the newsletter in 1995 with his father Sherman, creator of the McClellan Oscillator. “You can get into a condition where there is just so much money trying to charge through the door to get into the market that you don’t ever get a pullback you’d like to get, to get on board. And I saw a lot of signs that we’re in that condition.”
The S&P 500 jumped 11 percent from Oct. 4 through Oct. 14, the biggest gain over nine days since March 2009, buoyed by optimism over corporate earnings and steps by European leaders to support banks. The benchmark slipped 1.3 percent yesterday on concern about the strength of the economy, an impasse over the European bailout, and disappointing results from Apple Inc.
McClellan, who is based in Lakewood, Washington, said in an Aug. 18 interview that investors should avoid stocks until this month. The S&P 500 has since been stuck in a 158-point trading range, falling to this year’s intraday low of 1,074.77 on Oct. 4.
‘Thrust’ Signal
The rally since then has sent a “Zweig breadth thrust”signal, McClellan said. Named for Martin Zweig, who first identified it, the indicator tracks the number of rising securities divided by the total of advances and declines on the New York Stock Exchange.
The thrust signal is sent when the 10-day moving average of the data rises from below 0.40 to above 0.615 within 10 trading days, McClellan said. From Oct. 3 to Oct. 14, the reading jumped from 0.39 to 0.619, he said.
The McClellan advance-decline summation reading on NYSE-traded securities climbed above 200 on Oct. 12 for the first time since the end of August. It dipped below the threshold on two out of the following four days and surpassed it on the other two days, Bloomberg data show.
“When you see repeated high values, it’s saying that there is sustained pressure of money trying to find its way into the market,” McClellan said. “That tends to be a condition that doesn’t go away very quickly and tends to last for a long time,” he said. “That’s something you do in an uptrend, as opposed to a bear-market snapback rally.”

phymath999

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

The McClellan advance-decline summation reading on NYSE- traded securities climbed above 200 on Oct. 12 for the first time since the end of August