http://managed-futures-blog.attaincapital.com/tag/contango/
gd; long (持有) 期货=lending capital to sellers of 期货, 货钱给人; short (卖出) =borrowing money from others , 向人借钱, 卖家预期: 利差變小, 资金變便宜 ( same storage cost), 市場越愿意买现货卖出期货, 赚基差, (spread, 现货 vs 期货)=short volatility, contango curve to flatten out
with no wield spikes (spiking down) in chart=good measure, people willing to long the underlying
When the near month contract is priced lower than the out months, that condition is known as “contango”. In commodities like gold and silver, contango is the norm since the available supply consists of not just the mining production but also all of the bullion sitting in warehouses and safes around the world.
But because oil is so much more expensive to store than gold is, there is not the same sort of standing inventory available to remediate temporary supply-demand disruptions. So oil prices can move to very large conditions of contango, or to the opposite condition known as “backwardation” like we are seeing right now.
The normal market-based remedy for a large contango condition is for speculators to buy the cheaper commodity in the spot market and put it into storage, then sell a distant month futures contract to take advantage of the price difference between near month and out month pricing. That can be a profitable game if the amount of that price spread is sufficient to pay for both the storage costs and the cost of capital. So there is a natural limit to how big a contango can get, assuming that there are storage facilities available.
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