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Economy in Brief
German Expectations Begin to Get Hit
Hard
German consumers are feeling pretty good. Expectations are beginning to falter...
German consumers are feeling pretty good. Expectations are beginning to falter...
Consumer Sentiment Advances To
Highest Level Since 2007
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for October increased...
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for October increased...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Bounce
Back M/M But Trend Lower
Durable goods orders recovered 9.9% (2.5% y/y) last month following the 13.1% falloff during August...
Durable goods orders recovered 9.9% (2.5% y/y) last month following the 13.1% falloff during August...
U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment
Insurance Return To Trend
There's been volatility in the recent readings for initial jobless insurance claims...
There's been volatility in the recent readings for initial jobless insurance claims...
U.S. Chicago Fed Index
Recovers
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) rebounded...
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) rebounded...
U.S. Pending Home Sales
Stabilize
Pending sales of single-family homes ticked up 0.3% last month...
more...
Pending sales of single-family homes ticked up 0.3% last month...
U.S.
GDP Growth Firms But Price Inflation Accelerates
by Tom Moeller October 26, 2012
Economic growth recovered somewhat last quarter. Real GDP increased at a 2.0% (2.3% y/y) annual rate, up from the unrevised 1.3% Q2 gain. Consensus expectations were for a 1.8% rise. Improved growth in domestic final sales drove the gain with a 2.3% (2.0% y/y) advance. Growth in GDP and domestic sales were, however, only back to the Q1 rate.
Improved gains in domestic sales were broad-based. Personal consumption expenditure growth rose to 2.0% (2.0% y/y) as spending on motor vehicles increased at a 7.3% (8.9% y/y) rate and home furnishings & appliances outlays rose at an 8.2% (6.4% y/y) rate. Spending on clothing also posted a strong 6.2% (2.5% y/y) increase but services outlays rose just 0.8% (1.1% y/y). Government purchases rose at a 3.7% rate (-0.6% y/y). That increase was the first in over two years and was powered by a 13.1% (-1.6% y/y) rise in defense outlays. Residential investment also rose a strong 14.4% (13.8% y/y). To the downside, fixed business investment was a drag on growth and fell at a 1.3% rate (+4.7% y/y), the first quarterly decline in nearly three years.
The foreign trade sector had little effect on GDP growth. The 0.2 percentage point subtraction reflected a 1.6% (+2.3% y/y) decline in exports and a 0.2% (+2.6% y/y) slip in imports. Inventories subtracted a minimal 0.1 percentage point from growth. Farm inventories alone, however, reduced GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points due to the drought.
The GDP chain price index rose at an elevated 2.8% (1.7% y/y) rate, bolstered by a 6.6% (-1.3% y/y) decline in the import price index. The gain in the domestic final sales price index remained moderate at a 1.6% (1.4% y/y) rate.
The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail on the national accounts, including the new integrated economics accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
by Tom Moeller October 26, 2012
Economic growth recovered somewhat last quarter. Real GDP increased at a 2.0% (2.3% y/y) annual rate, up from the unrevised 1.3% Q2 gain. Consensus expectations were for a 1.8% rise. Improved growth in domestic final sales drove the gain with a 2.3% (2.0% y/y) advance. Growth in GDP and domestic sales were, however, only back to the Q1 rate.
Improved gains in domestic sales were broad-based. Personal consumption expenditure growth rose to 2.0% (2.0% y/y) as spending on motor vehicles increased at a 7.3% (8.9% y/y) rate and home furnishings & appliances outlays rose at an 8.2% (6.4% y/y) rate. Spending on clothing also posted a strong 6.2% (2.5% y/y) increase but services outlays rose just 0.8% (1.1% y/y). Government purchases rose at a 3.7% rate (-0.6% y/y). That increase was the first in over two years and was powered by a 13.1% (-1.6% y/y) rise in defense outlays. Residential investment also rose a strong 14.4% (13.8% y/y). To the downside, fixed business investment was a drag on growth and fell at a 1.3% rate (+4.7% y/y), the first quarterly decline in nearly three years.
The foreign trade sector had little effect on GDP growth. The 0.2 percentage point subtraction reflected a 1.6% (+2.3% y/y) decline in exports and a 0.2% (+2.6% y/y) slip in imports. Inventories subtracted a minimal 0.1 percentage point from growth. Farm inventories alone, however, reduced GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points due to the drought.
The GDP chain price index rose at an elevated 2.8% (1.7% y/y) rate, bolstered by a 6.6% (-1.3% y/y) decline in the import price index. The gain in the domestic final sales price index remained moderate at a 1.6% (1.4% y/y) rate.
The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail on the national accounts, including the new integrated economics accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
| Chained 2005 $,% AR | Q3'12 (Advance) | Q2'12 | Q1'12 | Q3'12 Y/Y |
2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | -3.1 |
| Inventory Effect | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 1.5 | -0.8 |
| Final Sales | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | -2.3 |
| Foreign Trade Effect | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 1.0 |
| Domestic Final Sales | 2.3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | -3.3 |
| Demand Components | |||||||
| Personal Consumption | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |
| Business Fixed Investment | -1.3 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 0.7 | -18.1 |
| Residential Investment | 14.4 | 8.4 | 20.6 | 13.8 | -1.4 | -3.1 | -22.4 |
| Government Spending | 3.7 | -0.7 | -3.0 | -0.6 | -3.1 | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| Chain-Type Price Index | |||||||
| GDP | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Final Sales of Domestic Product | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | -0.2 |
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