Oct. 18, 2012, 1:47 p.m. EDT
Bond guru Gundlach on the U.S., China and Apple
Playing Apple vs. gas and S&P 500 vs. China are favored trades
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By Deborah Levine,
MarketWatch
So when it comes to trying to pay for the country’s entitlement commitments, it really only makes sense to follow the money.
“There’s no surplus in the government or public economy,” Gundlach said.
“If you want to talk about paying for things using surpluses built up in the past, there are two places to get it: in corporations and the vaults of rich people. You may not like it. I don’t know how you can get away from that fact.”
But any way that lawmakers try to deal with the deficit — raising taxes or cutting spending or some of both — for an investor, it doesn’t matter. It’s going to hurt the economy. For a bond investor, the key factor there is that’s deflationary. If the economy shrinks then so do price pressures.
He’s also thinking about shorting the S&P 500 index /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -0.41% now against the Shanghai Composite index /quotes/zigman/1859015 CN:000001 +1.24% , but not because he thinks the Shanghai index is going up.
“One of the most over-believed economies in the world is China. People think it’s superhuman because it’s an autocratic state.” He thinks China is growing at a much slower pace than government data shows.
That — shorting the S&P 500 versus the Shanghai Composite — is a switch he’s considering after being short the S&P 500 versus Spanish stocks, which “made people break out in hives when I said that a few months ago.” In the third quarter, the IBEX 35 index /quotes/zigman/2759620 XX:IBEX -0.34% gained 8.5% while the S&P 500 index advanced 5.8
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On the U.S. fiscal problems
Gundlach pointed to statistics showing income disparity in the U.S. growing over time, and how the highest earners — the top fraction of the 1% — have seen their tax rates drop since the 1960s, while everyone in the middle has seen taxes rise modestly. He pointed out that wages as a percent of the economy are at an all-time low, while corporate profits as a percent of the economy are at an all-time high.So when it comes to trying to pay for the country’s entitlement commitments, it really only makes sense to follow the money.
U.S. jobless claims rise to 388,000
Initial jobless claims were up to a seasonally adjusted 388,000 in the week ended Oct. 13, rising more than economists expected.“If you want to talk about paying for things using surpluses built up in the past, there are two places to get it: in corporations and the vaults of rich people. You may not like it. I don’t know how you can get away from that fact.”
But any way that lawmakers try to deal with the deficit — raising taxes or cutting spending or some of both — for an investor, it doesn’t matter. It’s going to hurt the economy. For a bond investor, the key factor there is that’s deflationary. If the economy shrinks then so do price pressures.
Pair trades he likes
It may seem like blasphemy to many, but Gundlach said Apple Inc. /quotes/zigman/68270/quotes/nls/aapl AAPL -1.96% is one “of the most over-believed companies in the world.” He’s actually shorted Apple against natural gas, which has worked out for him so far.He’s also thinking about shorting the S&P 500 index /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX -0.41% now against the Shanghai Composite index /quotes/zigman/1859015 CN:000001 +1.24% , but not because he thinks the Shanghai index is going up.
“One of the most over-believed economies in the world is China. People think it’s superhuman because it’s an autocratic state.” He thinks China is growing at a much slower pace than government data shows.
That — shorting the S&P 500 versus the Shanghai Composite — is a switch he’s considering after being short the S&P 500 versus Spanish stocks, which “made people break out in hives when I said that a few months ago.” In the third quarter, the IBEX 35 index /quotes/zigman/2759620 XX:IBEX -0.34% gained 8.5% while the S&P 500 index advanced 5.8
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