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Personal attacks [ 墨虎 ]
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Personal attacks是众多fallacy的一种。西方从亚里士多德开始identify了大量的Formal fallacy。
所谓尊重的稀缺，其实是逻辑的稀缺。一个缺乏逻辑的文化，怎么可能富于创新呢？
所谓尊重的稀缺，其实是逻辑的稀缺。一个缺乏逻辑的文化，怎么可能富于创新呢？
说下我对美国金融危机的看法 [ 汉密尔顿ABC ]
美国的金融危机源于美元世界储备货币的地位。
由于美元是世界货币，而外国投资者手中的美元除了用于结算各自之间的交易外，大部分都流回美国本土。为了消化这些额外美元，华尔街依靠其“金融创新”能力，发展了一批以风险对冲和未来收益为核心的金融产品，在虚拟市场滞留大量美元。
事实上在今天，虚拟经济已经大大超越实体经济。纽约原油期货交易市场上一月的交易量就超过全年石油贸易总额。这样大的资金量说明有大量的资产被抵押为美元在美国金融市场上交易。
逐利是人的天性。刚开始这些抵押的资产风险度都较小，一旦出现资金链断裂可以依靠实物资产止损。但是这样一来资金量就小，华尔街们无论是佣金还是炒作得利都偏少。因此在97-07年近10年间，被抵押的资产中，未来收益型逐渐增多。比如你贷款买房子，抵押的就是你的未来收入；比如用债券抵押贷款，也可以看做是在抵押未来收入。
大量人、固定资产、虚拟资产的未来收益被抵押成美元进入金融市场。这就导致个必然问题，因为一旦经济出现波动，原本值100块钱的未来收益很快就一文不值。放贷者收不回贷款，市场参与者闻风纷纷自保，导致资金链层层收缩，最终昔日繁华的虚拟经济大厦轰然倒塌一地鸡毛。
这次由次贷问题引发的经济危机，根本原因还是市场参与者产生恐惧导致的资金链收缩，并非生产力不足又或生产力过于集中导致购买力不足，与19世纪的几次大萧条有本质区别。事后经过美联储持续放水引导市场，全球经济很快就在08年年底开始反弹。
只要美元还是事实上的国际货币，只要美国金融市场是全球最大的金融市场，这种几年一次的周期性波动都是可以预见的事。
同样，如果有天人民币成为全球货币，建立完善的金融市场来使人民币持有者有个投资去处就是必然选择。毕竟人天性逐利，而投资实体经济这种重活可不是人人都能干的，人民币投资如果没有去处自然也就没有持有必要。
The term fallacy is often used generally to mean an argument that is problematic for any reason, whether it is formal or informal.
The presence of a formal fallacy in a deductive argument does not imply anything about the argument's premises or its conclusion. Both may actually be true, or even more probable as a result of the argument, but the deductive argument is still invalid because the conclusion does not follow from the premises in the manner described. By extension, an argument can contain a formal fallacy even if the argument is not a deductive one; for instance an inductive argument that incorrectly applies principles of probability or causality can be said to commit a formal fallacy.
"Fallacious arguments usually have the deceptive appearance of being good arguments."[1] Recognizing fallacies in everyday arguments may be difficult since arguments are often embedded in rhetorical patterns that obscure the logical connections between statements. Informal fallacies may also exploit the emotional, intellectual, or psychological weaknesses of the audience. Having the capability to recognize fallacies in arguments is one way to reduce the likelihood of such occurrences.
A different approach to understanding and classifying fallacies is provided by argumentation theory. In this approach, an argument is regarded as an interactive protocol between individuals which attempts to resolve their disagreements. The protocol is regulated by certain rules of interaction and violations of these rules are fallacies.
Such fallacies are used in many forms of modern communications where the intention is to influence behavior and change beliefs. Examples in the mass media today include but are not limited to propaganda, advertisements, politics, newspaper editorials and opinion-based “news” shows.
由于美元是世界货币，而外国投资者手中的美元除了用于结算各自之间的交易外，大部分都流回美国本土。为了消化这些额外美元，华尔街依靠其“金融创新”能力，发展了一批以风险对冲和未来收益为核心的金融产品，在虚拟市场滞留大量美元。
事实上在今天，虚拟经济已经大大超越实体经济。纽约原油期货交易市场上一月的交易量就超过全年石油贸易总额。这样大的资金量说明有大量的资产被抵押为美元在美国金融市场上交易。
逐利是人的天性。刚开始这些抵押的资产风险度都较小，一旦出现资金链断裂可以依靠实物资产止损。但是这样一来资金量就小，华尔街们无论是佣金还是炒作得利都偏少。因此在97-07年近10年间，被抵押的资产中，未来收益型逐渐增多。比如你贷款买房子，抵押的就是你的未来收入；比如用债券抵押贷款，也可以看做是在抵押未来收入。
大量人、固定资产、虚拟资产的未来收益被抵押成美元进入金融市场。这就导致个必然问题，因为一旦经济出现波动，原本值100块钱的未来收益很快就一文不值。放贷者收不回贷款，市场参与者闻风纷纷自保，导致资金链层层收缩，最终昔日繁华的虚拟经济大厦轰然倒塌一地鸡毛。
这次由次贷问题引发的经济危机，根本原因还是市场参与者产生恐惧导致的资金链收缩，并非生产力不足又或生产力过于集中导致购买力不足，与19世纪的几次大萧条有本质区别。事后经过美联储持续放水引导市场，全球经济很快就在08年年底开始反弹。
只要美元还是事实上的国际货币，只要美国金融市场是全球最大的金融市场，这种几年一次的周期性波动都是可以预见的事。
同样，如果有天人民币成为全球货币，建立完善的金融市场来使人民币持有者有个投资去处就是必然选择。毕竟人天性逐利，而投资实体经济这种重活可不是人人都能干的，人民币投资如果没有去处自然也就没有持有必要。
Formal fallacy
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Logical fallacy" redirects here. For other meanings, see Fallacy (disambiguation).
In philosophy, a formal fallacy is a pattern of reasoning that is always wrong. This is due to a flaw in the logical structure of the argument which renders the argument invalid. A formal fallacy is contrasted with an informal fallacy, which may have a valid logical form, but be false due to the characteristics of its premises, or its justification structure.The term fallacy is often used generally to mean an argument that is problematic for any reason, whether it is formal or informal.
The presence of a formal fallacy in a deductive argument does not imply anything about the argument's premises or its conclusion. Both may actually be true, or even more probable as a result of the argument, but the deductive argument is still invalid because the conclusion does not follow from the premises in the manner described. By extension, an argument can contain a formal fallacy even if the argument is not a deductive one; for instance an inductive argument that incorrectly applies principles of probability or causality can be said to commit a formal fallacy.
"Fallacious arguments usually have the deceptive appearance of being good arguments."[1] Recognizing fallacies in everyday arguments may be difficult since arguments are often embedded in rhetorical patterns that obscure the logical connections between statements. Informal fallacies may also exploit the emotional, intellectual, or psychological weaknesses of the audience. Having the capability to recognize fallacies in arguments is one way to reduce the likelihood of such occurrences.
A different approach to understanding and classifying fallacies is provided by argumentation theory. In this approach, an argument is regarded as an interactive protocol between individuals which attempts to resolve their disagreements. The protocol is regulated by certain rules of interaction and violations of these rules are fallacies.
Such fallacies are used in many forms of modern communications where the intention is to influence behavior and change beliefs. Examples in the mass media today include but are not limited to propaganda, advertisements, politics, newspaper editorials and opinion-based “news” shows.
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