Late to the Party?
the calls for a breakout in stocks and talk of 1500 price targets are getting a little loud for this old contrarian. I still think we make a move higher but we are likely not sustaining a breakout from these levels with momo indicators on the ceiling. In fact as much as we think the market sees higher prices the better r/r set up from these levels is from the short side.
it wouldn’t surprise us to see a gap above the 1420 level that runs stops and capitulates the late holdouts only to reverse in their face. I think we need to see momo on the floor prior to launching a breakout and with the Jackson Hole symposium in two weeks there is no reason to pile on now.
as you may have seen in our Jackson Hole preview on Minyanville today we think the trade into the Labor Day weekend will be very tricky. You have the much anticipated Bernanke speech on Friday but traders will have to position for Draghi on Saturday before the long weekend. That Friday trading desks will be lightly attended and liquidity will be thin.
The big trade is not into Labor Day it’s away from it as the boys position for year end of which for mutual funds is October. trade ex ante…
Chart: FreeStockCharts.com
as you may have seen in our Jackson Hole preview on Minyanville today we think the trade into the Labor Day weekend will be very tricky. You have the much anticipated Bernanke speech on Friday but traders will have to position for Draghi on Saturday before the long weekend. That Friday trading desks will be lightly attended and liquidity will be thin.
The big trade is not into Labor Day it’s away from it as the boys position for year end of which for mutual funds is October. trade ex ante…
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