US Durable Goods New Orders is at a current level of 238.78B, up from 238.70B last month. This represents a monthly annualized growth rate of 0.38%, compared to a long term average annualized growth rate of 4.19%.
http://www.rttnews.com/corpinfo/economiccalendar.aspx
12/23/15
08:30 AM
Durable Goods Orders Ex. Defense (M-o-M)
NOV
-1.5 %
3.0 (R) %
United States
...Well, I've been watching the non-defense DG orders for some time now, and it appears to me, as the Chicago Fed reported, that we are seeing declining activity in the good ole US...
...I realize there are any number of outcomes to the present credit mess the globe is in, but I do think the tech bubble was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to become really wealthy, and it is my hope that I get a chance here to try something like that again. Markets are controlled by thoughts...and at times we are all sheep (or lemmings)...I just am hopeful I am reading the tea leaves properly this time...
...Good trading 2016...
And really great blog for 2015. Merry Christmas everyone.
On NIKE, Under Armor had not really engaged in Chinese market. I do not know what happend to Addidas, but Puma is in dust in China right now.
And it is also the same for some Chinese domestic sportware brands, i.e, Li-Ning, which almost vanished from the major local markets.
So NIKE's success is more to do the company itself than the industry trend. NIKE is eating its competitor's pie in China.
I'm stuck with the idea that inflation could actually go up while growth does not. Some claim that without draining money supply first, raising rates could actually contribute to increasing money velocity, which could end up badly combined with the negative yoy commodity base effects dropping off. If the global economy picks up it'll be bullish commodities, if it doesn't it could be bullish through lowering the expected tightening trajectory. Wouldn't it be natural to drain money supply first? Common sense says putting pieces back together always happens in the reverse order. Rates zero -> QE and QT -> rates up, not the other way around. Or does it really matter?
Anyway we've probably gotten past the "bad news is good and vice versa", so it could be plausible to expect that the real economy and earnings start mattering more than they used to. And with the slowing sales growth and potentially slowing pace of buybacks, the mask could come off bringing into everyones attention the - at best stagnating net incomes. Though don't know whether analyst expectations have already anticipated or adapted to the reality. If this year was a year for breaking market breadth and wide vol between different sectors then perhaps the next one could be about cracking the last fortresses which have been holding the indices up? Not to get too specific but would expect e.g. AAPL to wither away through a very long term decline.
Happy holidays everyone.
Oh yes.. oh bloody yes. Superbly expressed. Thanks for another great year
Happy Christmas all.
Pol
Re Nike preorders in China:
When anything that is sold by multiple vendors becomes highly sought-after and demand outstrips supply, would-be buyers order from multiple vendors and after they get delivery from one cancel the remaining orders. The vendors get caught up in the craze and order from their wholesalers in like manner.
Perhaps this is happening to Nike...
I don't live too far from there, and drove by the other day -- that pile of dirt you see in the background is enormous now -- I'm guessing 70-90 feet high.
- Whammer
Happy Xmas.
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